My Foray into Forecasting

I’m going to try and include a song for each bit I write that may or may not be related to the bit’s content. A friend showed me this about year ago and it still hasn’t gotten old. Friko - Where We’ve Been.

People try and predict the future everyday. Most of them are hilariously wrong but a few get things right more often than not. Some even get paid to do it. Let’s call it forecasting, stolen from Tetlock’s Superforecasting and call the people who partake forecasters. People who play the stock market are forecasters. Fortune Teller’s are forecasters. Gambler, hustlers and political pundits are all forecasters as well. Since none of us are Laplace’s demon—we take educated guesses and retrospectively analyze what went wrong, or right, and adjust accordingly to hopefully make better predictions.

I like making predictions. More importantly, I like making predictions that come true. So how can I become part of the elite Superforecasting group and not be laughed at when all my predictions are dead wrong? Enter prediction markets. A fancy way of saying a market where you can bet on anything and everything. Poly Market and Kalshi are probably the two biggest but there are others like Manifold which I use. Betting on a prediction does two things.

1. Tempers the prediction.
2. Keeps a public record of predictions.

In short, predictions markets provide an easy way to keep yourself honest. Are your predictions “profitable”? If the answer is no—you probably need to change some part of your analysis. I’ll be keeping a public record of all predictions I make on this site under forecasts. You can also find my Manifold’s account here.